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Turmoil in the Middle East and Prospects for the Chinese Communist Party

Public Security Bureau car at Tiananmen Square; photo by author, 2008

In recent weeks, many in the West, and even some in China, have speculated about the resilience of China’s authoritarianism. Could what happened in Egypt happen in China? (For some U.S. perspectives, see a Forbes.com article by Gordon Chang from January 30th and a Wall Street Journal article by Loretta Chao from a couple weeks ago.) China is clearly playing it safe as it reacts with force to even the smallest hints of protest this week.

The Tiananmen Square massacre remains the template for authoritarian responses to popular pro-democracy movements. “The unity of China is more important than those people in Tiananmen Square,” Muammar Qaddafi said last Tuesday. (In fact, Qaddafi was attempting to justify actions so appalling that even China has voted in favor of a unanimous UN Security Council resolution that said those attacks against civilians “may amount to crimes against humanity.”)

So, what would it take for another revolution in China? And what would China’s communist party (the CCP) be willing or able to do to stay in power?

Here are some things to think about.

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China, U.S. Policy »

How Not to End Chinese Currency Manipulation
[24 March 2010, Comments Off on About Sanctioning China (and Then Being Sanctioned by China), Tags: , , , , , , ]

The Chinese Renminbi, whose largest denomination remains 100 yuan ($14.64)

In the recent hoopla about sanctioning China for currency manipulation, there are a few factors that are being overlooked. These factors suggest that sanctioning Chinese exports won’t help the United States achieve the economic results one would hope to achieve.

To begin with, the goal should be reducing the trade deficit with China not for its own sake, but to produce more jobs in the United States. (After all, this is why China’s currency manipulation matters.)

So U.S. companies need to find more demand for products they produce, either here or elsewhere around the world. Yet if the U.S. slaps a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, it might as well give up on selling much at all to China’s 1.3 billion-person market.

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