Southeast Asians want the United States active and engaged in the region, and the U.S. is clearly trying to deliver. But Southeast Asian countries cannot hope to receive full U.S. support in the South China Sea until they resolve ongoing disputes among themselves.

This burst of U.S. activity in Southeast Asia is, in part, a response to China’s recent assertiveness, particularly in the maritime space (more on that here). Southeast Asians hope drawing the United States more deeply into the region can help balance China’s heft in multilateral organizations and deter China from using force to resolve territorial disputes, even as Southeast Asians beef up their own defense capabilities.

Map of the South China Sea (1988). (Source: University of Texas Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection)

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U.S. Navy photograph by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Richard J. Brunson

On Friday, the UN Security Council came out with a weak statement that failed to assign blame for the attack and sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March. China and Russia declined to participate in an international inquiry, watered down the Security Council statement, and now willfully look the other way as North Korea continues denying its involvement. The Council’s statement mentioned the results of the internationally-backed inquiry that showed a North Korean torpedo was responsible, but that was all.

Frankly, Korean president Lee Mung-bak failed to take advantage of the considerable leverage he had to press China to take a harder line against North Korean provocations. Lee made the understandable decision to reassure investors by ruling out military retaliation early on. But in doing so, he also took away what appears to be the only thing that would change China’s calculus on North Korea: the possibility of major escalation.

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Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou campaigned on the idea that economic growth depends upon better relations with the mainland (Photo by Daniel Michaeli, Taipei, March 2008)

An Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between China and Taiwan was signed yesterday in Chongqing, promising a substantial boost to Taiwan’s export industry. (A Taiwan government-sponsored study claims the deal will create 260,000 jobs and add 1.7 percentage points to Taiwan’s GDP growth each year over the next seven years.) This agreement has been called a “game changer” by both proponents and opponents, though it still requires the approval of Taiwan’s legislature.

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Date: 24 May 2010.

Publication: The Huffington Post.

Authors: Daniel Michaeli and Joel Backaler.

Monday’s Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the United States and China provides the Obama administration with an opportunity to forge agreements in a number of areas of crucial significance for both U.S. economic competitiveness and strategic stability in Asia–but only if U.S. negotiators are willing to give non-headline topics the attention they deserve.

At this time of economic uncertainty, the future of the American economy is firmly linked to the ability of U.S. companies to compete for marketshare in China, the world’s fastest-growing market. So U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s agenda should not overstress the revaluation of China’s currency. Despite the degree of media attention paid to the issue, nearly 80% of U.S. firms in China don’t expect a revaluation to increase their profits, according to a recent American Chamber of Commerce in China survey. Rather, across a host of industries, Chinese commercial rules give domestic firms an unfair leg up over American ones, and this is the more significant reason U.S. companies have been unsuccessful in cracking the Chinese market.

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With “a battalion of security guards and female dining companions” aboard his train, North Korea’s leader arrived in China today en-route to Beijing. Kim Jong-il finds himself increasingly under pressure for the sinking of South Korea’s Cheonan in March, isolated by international sanctions, and still reeling from having angered much of North Korea’s elite with last year’s currency fiasco.

So Kim would probably be grateful for just about anything Beijing will give him. And reports suggest China has lots of goodies to offer, in exchange for access to minerals and ports along the Sea of Japan.

China has attracted well-deserved criticism for ignoring the Cheonan ship incident for nearly a month. Now, after finally meekly expressing sympathy for an event that caught China (and the region) by surprise–an event that suggested North Korean brinkmanship could be getting more serious–why is Beijing going out of its way to help Kim?

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Media: Voice of America.

Subjects: Chinese interests in the Middle East, the China-Iran economic relationship, Iran, Iran’s nuclear program, and differing Chinese and U.S. foreign policy priorities.

Length: 2:43.

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Most commentary on the April 7th protests and apparent collapse of Kyrgyzstan’s government has focused on the Kyrgyz political situation, the failure of the 2005 Tulip Revolution, (former?) president Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s autocratic behavior, and the roles of the United States and Russia.

But I want to turn readers’ attention to the relevance of this event for China. And there could even be serious implications for U.S. global economic and political priorities.

This week’s events in Kyrgyzstan parallel, in some ways, China’s own Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Those were also a fairly spontaneous, nation-wide movement responding to both political repression and rising prices. In both 1989 China and 2010 Kyrgyzstan, many policemen and soldiers refused to attack their countrymen. Both culminated in violence in the capital (though the Chinese student protest movement, unlike the Kyrgyz opposition, was unarmed and peaceful).

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